Secondary school recruitment in 2023/24

18th June 2024 by Timo Hannay [link]

Update 18th June 2024: See also this summary from the Gatsby Foundation and this coverage in Tes.

We are delighted to present our annual review of the secondary school recruitment market. As before, this is a collaboration with the Gatsby Foundation and Teacher Tapp. Particular thanks to the Gatsby Foundation for their generous funding of this work. Please also see our joint report. This blog post supplements that, taking a deeper dive into the recruitment advertising data, and into some further trends relating to geographical disparities and disadvantage.

To summarise:

• Following two years of below-normal teacher recruitment activity during the pandemic, we saw two unusually active years in 2021/22 and 2022/23. The current year is somewhere in between: still higher than usual, but down from the highest post-pandemic peaks.
• Activity during the recent peak season has not been much different to a normal pre-pandemic year. The increased activity seen during 2023/24 has been due mainly to unusually high numbers of adverts between September and December. In other words, teacher recruitment has become a bit less seasonal, with more activity early in the academic year.
• There is a great deal of variation by subject, with the biggest percentage increases relative to pre-pandemic norms seen in the humanities, technology, the arts and languages. The relative changes in numbers of English, maths and science adverts were modest by comparison. There are also considerable variations by region, with the largest increases since before the pandemic seen in the North West.
• Technician recruitment is less seasonal, but also showed big increases in the two years immediately after the pandemic. Overall advert numbers have now returned to levels only just above those seen before the pandemic. Here, too, there is considerable variation by region, with the biggest increases since before the pandemic seen in the North West, and by subject, with the biggest increases seen in arts subjects.
• Following dips in 2020/21 and 2021/22, followed by usually high activity in 2022/23, headteacher turnover appears to have returned to more or less normal pre-pandemic levels, though with more changes happening out of season in January or April rather than in September.
• Schools with higher proportions of children who are eligible for free school meals tended to advertise for teachers more frequently than those with lower proportions, and this gap has grown since the pandemic. This opposite trend was observed for technician vacancies
• Since the end of the pandemic, there has been a large increase in spending on supply teachers. This is higher for schools with greater proportions of pupils eligible for free school meals and for those located in poorer areas. These disparities have grown since the pandemic.
• Even after allowing for their different teacher populations, there are considerable regional variations in the numbers of newly trained teachers ending up at state schools. These are highest in London and lowest in the North East, and this gap has increased considerably since the pandemic.
• So in certain ways things have partially returned to normal. But in others they remain disrupted, with some of the new burdens falling disproportionately on disadvantaged schools.

To find out more, read on. Subscribers to SchoolDash Insights can also follow these trends in real time in the Recruitment and Headteachers sections.

 

Teaching talent

Figure 1 shows numbers of teacher vacancy adverts found on school and college websites during each week from September 2017 to mid-June 2024. (See Footnote 1 for a brief explanation of how the data were gathered.) Annual seasonal cycles are clearly visible, with two 'normal' pre-pandemic years, two much less active mid-pandemic years and two post-pandemic years in which activity was much higher than usual. The current year, 2023/24, seems closer to the pre-pandemic years, though activity in the autumn was higher than usual while the spring peak was, if anything, a bit lower, suggesting reduced seasonality.

As well as showing all subjects together, the data have also been divided into eight broad subject areas, each of which show somewhat different patterns. For example, adverts for English are similar or even lower than before the pandemic, while those for humanities subjects remain elevated.

(Use the menu below to select a subject area to view. Hover over the lines to see corresponding data values.)

Figure 2 shows the same data, but overlays each academic year using lines of different colours in order to make it easier to compare one year with another. There is a relatively consistent annual trend in which activity is lower during the autumn and winter, then rises to a peak in April and May before declining again in the summer. Before the pandemic, this seasonality in the weekly data was consistent from year to year, with 2018/19 (red line) providing a good representative example. But in 2019/20 (yellow) the springtime peak was absent due to school closures. Activity remained depressed in 2020/21 (green), especially when schools were closed again in early 2021. Activity rebounded in 2021/22 (blue), rising to higher-than-normal levels in spring 2022. This elevated activity reached new peaks in 2022/23 (purple). So far in 2023/24 (black), activity was high during the autumn and winter, but since then has looked much more similar to pre-pandemic norms.

Looking again at all years together, it is useful to compare cumulative numbers of adverts, which make the differences between years easier to see. Using 2018/19 (red) as a reference, there was clearly a big reduction in 2019/20 (yellow), followed by the further decline in 2020/21 (green) and the bounce back to higher-than-normal levels in 2021/22 (blue) and 2022/23 (purple). In the current year, 2023/24 (black), activity was high during the autumn and winter, but since then has tracked much closer to normal pre-pandemic activity levels. The net result is that overall activity has remained higher than usual, but has also been less seasonal. It remains to be seen whether this is because recruitment finally returned to something more like normal at the start of 2024, or because it remains elevated, but with schools pushing some of their teacher hiring to earlier in the year. We will have a better idea by the end of this calendar year.

It is also interesting to see differences by subject (again, using cumulative data across all years). As we saw above in Figure 1, English appears to be more or less back to normal, while humanities subjects remain at higher levels than we saw before the pandemic (compare the red and black lines).

(Use the menus below to view weekly or cumulative data, and to select different subject areas. Click on the figure legend to hide or view individual academic years. Hover over the lines to see corresponding data values.)

Figure 3 summarises the changes seen so far this year compared to the equivalent periods last year (blue columns) and in the most recent pre-pandemic year (red). Looking at percentage changes for both years together, all subjects showed year-on-year decreases in the range 6%-18%, but because 2022/23 showed the highest activity since we began tracking teacher recruitment adverts in 2017, this still amounted to increases relative to pre-pandemic levels of anywhere between 3% (English and maths) and 26% (humanities).

In terms of absolute numbers of adverts, humanities showed the largest increases since before the pandemic (just under 1,250). In total, we have so far found about 4,300 fewer adverts than last year (red columns), but nearly 4,600 more than in the most recent pre-pandemic year (blue).

(Use the menu below to switch between percentage changes and changes in numbers of adverts. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values and numbers of adverts.)

Figure 4 shows the percentage change in numbers of adverts between 2023/24 (ie, the current academic year so far) and the equivalent period in 2018/19 (the most recent pre-pandemic year), broken down by various school characteristics. Note that this omits positions advertised by multi-school federations or trusts because it is hard to associate these vacancies with specific schools. These kinds of adverts constitute a relatively small but steadily increasing proportion of the total, so the changes shown here will tend to understate increases (or, equivalently, overstate decreases) in overall activity. They are nevertheless helpful in determining relative trends between different school types and locations.

Across all subjects, two regions – the East Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber – showed very little change, while the North East declined and other regions, especially the North West, posted increases. Schools located in more affluent areas tended to show greater increases, but so did those with more children having low prior attainment. We will explore disadvantage-related trends in more detail below.

(Use the menus below to explore different school groups and subjects. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values and numbers of adverts.)

 

Technical team

In addition to teacher vacancies, we also track secondary school adverts for technicians. Weekly numbers since September 2017 are shown Figure 5. Technician recruitment traditionally peaks in June and September, though this seasonality is not as easy to discern as it is for teachers. Across all subjects, there was a deep decline during the pandemic and an enormous rebound in the couple of years that followed. The same broad patterns are evident across different subject areas, which in the case of technicians are broken down into the arts, science, technology and other. Note that the absolute numbers here are much lower than those for teachers, so they are also more susceptible to statistical variations.

(Use the menu below to select a subject area to view. Hover over the lines to see corresponding data values.)

Figure 6 shows each of the last six years of technician vacancy advert data overlaid for comparison. The most recent pre-pandemic year, 2018/19 (red line), had traditional seasonality, with peaks at the beginning and end of the school year in September and June. By comparison, spring and summer recruiting was much lower in 2019/20 (yellow). This continued into the first part of 2020/21 (green), but then activity took off in summer 2021 and has since continued at unusually high levels throughout 2021/22 (blue) and 2022/23 (purple). So far, 2023/24 (black) has been similar to pre-pandemic years, albeit with a very high spike in the second week of June. It will be interesting to see how technician recruitment progresses during the summer and autumn.

Looking again at all years together, the cumulative data remind us how exceptional were the two immediate post-pandemic years (blue and purple), not only compared to the pandemic-affected years (yellow and green), but also compared to pre-pandemic norms (red). The current year, 2023/24 (black), is currently tracking slightly above last pre-pandemic year in 2018/19.

(Use the menus below to view weekly or cumulative data, and to select different subject areas. Click on the figure legend to hide or view individual academic years. Hover over the lines to see corresponding data values.)

Figure 7 shows the percentage changes by subject area, comparing activity so far this year with the equivalent period last year (blue columns) and with the most recent pre-pandemic year (red). Looking again at both years together, all subjects showed increases of roughly 5% and 35% compared to pre-pandemic baselines, though they were down by around 15% to 30% compared to last year's unusually high levels.

In terms of numbers of adverts, the arts showed the largest increases relative to pre-pandemic levels (just under 140; blue). Technology and science saw the largest decrease compared to last year (around 475 and 330, respectively; red). In total, we have so far found 300 more technician adverts than the during the equivalent period before the pandemic, but over 900 fewer than last year.

(Use the menu below to switch between percentage changes and changes in numbers of adverts. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values and numbers of adverts.)

Figure 8 shows the percentage change in numbers of technician adverts between the current academic year and the most recent pre-pandemic year, broken down by type of school. As for teachers in Figure 4, this analysis omits positions advertised by multi-school federations or trusts and so will tend to understate increases (or overstate decreases) in overall activity. But it is still useful in understanding relative trends between different types of schools.

Across all subjects, the regions that showed the largest declines were Yorkshire and the Humber and the East of England, while the North West showed the biggest increase.

(Use the menus below to explore different school groups and subjects. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values and numbers of adverts.)

 

Heads down

Though we do not track headteacher vacancies, we do monitor headteacher appointments using data from the Department for Education (DfE). They publish the names of school leaders and update this information daily when informed of new appointments. This is therefore a lagging indicator – unlike the vacancy adverts above, which are leading indicators of new appointments. (Note that we automatically omit typo corrections, changes in surnames and similar updates, so the numbers shown are putative changes in people, not just trivial edits to the database.)

Figure 9 shows the number of headteacher changes for each month over the last five academic years, and for the current 2023/24 academic year to date. The main annual peak is in September, with slightly raised turnover also evident at the beginning of the spring and summer terms, in January and April. So far this year, total headteacher turnover appears to be back to pre-pandemic levels, though with raised levels out of season in January in April. Similar trends are evident across primary schools, secondary schools and all schools together. This echoes the trends we saw above for secondary-school teacher recruitment.

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools, primary schools and secondary schools. Click on the figure legend to hide or view individual academic years. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values.)

 

The disadvantages of disadvantage

This section takes deeper dive into trends that relate to various aspects of disadvantage, including regional differences. Though we will begin with teacher and technician vacancy data, we will also go beyond these to look at spending on supply teachers and placement of newly trained teachers.

First, we will look at relative rates of advertising, how these vary by school type or location, and how they have changed since the pandemic. Figure 10 shows numbers of teacher adverts by school location and type, adjusted for their different teacher population sizes. Values are shown for equivalent periods between September and June just before the pandemic (2018/19, red columns) and for the current year (2023/24, blue).

Across all subjects, the regions with the highest rates of advertising were London, the South East and the East of England; the lowest was the North East and the biggest proportional increase since before the pandemic was seen in the North West. Schools with higher proportions of children who are eligible for free school meals have tended to advertise at higher rates than those with lower proportions, and this gap has grown since the pandemic. There is no similar overall trend for schools located in poorer areas, though there is for some specific subject areas such as maths.

(Use the menus below to explore different school groups and subjects. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values.)

Figure 11 shows a similar analysis for technicians. Once again, values are shown for equivalent periods between September and June just before the pandemic (2018/19, red columns) and for the current year (2023/24, blue).

Across all subjects, the regions with the highest rates of advertising was the South East and the lowest was the North East, which also showed the biggest proportional increase. Schools with higher proportions of children who are eligible for free school meals (FSM) tended to advertise less frequently than those with lower proportions. The same is true of schools located in poorer areas. These trends vary by subject area – see for example Arts, for which the trends by in-school deprivation and local deprivation appear to have reversed since the pandemic.

(Use the menus below to explore different school groups and subjects. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values.)

Another way to assess the degree of difficulty schools face in filling teacher vacancies is to analyse how much they spend on supply teachers. Figure 12 shows spending on supply teachers by school location and type, adjusted for the different teacher population sizes in each group. It includes the last full year before the pandemic (2018/19, red) and the most recent year for which financial data are available (2022/23, blue).

Spending on support teachers has increased across all regions, with London remaining top. Schools with higher proportions of pupils eligible for free school meals have spent more on average, and this gap has grown since the pandemic. The same is true of schools located in poorer areas.

(Use the menus below to explore different school groups. Hover over the columns to see corresponding data values.)

Finally, we will look at the availability of newly trained teachers. This information is not published at school level, only by region. So we can't examine it by disadvantage level, but we can see broad geographical trends. (Note that the region is the one in which the teacher was trained, not necessarily the one in which they ended up working, though we would expect a strong correlation between the two.) Figure 13 shows the numbers of newly trained teachers who went to work in a state school for the last full year before the pandemic (2018/19, red) and the most recent year for which teacher-training data are available (2021/22, blue). The underlying numbers come from the Department for Education.

London produces the largest numbers of newly trained teachers, and has seen the biggest increase since the pandemic. The North East produces the fewest. But bear in mind that the North East is also the smallest region, population-wise, and London is the largest, with around 3.4 times as many teachers.

To allow for these different teacher populations, Figure 14 shows a similar analysis, but with number of newly trained teachers expressed as a proportion of all teachers in each region. Here, too, London produces the highest level of new teachers going to state schools, and this has increased greatly since the pandemic. The East of England and the North East have the lowest proportions, and have fallen since the pandemic.

What to make of all this? In some respects the huge disruptions of the pandemic and the couple of years that followed have subsided. In particular, recruitment activity and headteacher turnover have both declined from their post-COVID peaks. But in other ways they persist: overall numbers of recruitment adverts remain higher than before the pandemic and some of this activity seems to have shifted to earlier in the school year, perhaps indicating increased difficulty in filling vacancies. Moreover, some regional and socioeconomic divides – underlying rates of recruitment, use of supply teachers and access to newly trained teaching staff – appear to have widened. The challenges of school staffing have not gone away, they are merely changing shape.

SchoolDash Insights can also follow these trends in real time in the Recruitment and Headteachers sections. Non-subscribers can request a trial account or demo. To keep up to date with more analyses like this one, sign up for our free monthly-ish newsletter and if you have questions or comments then we would be delighted to hear from you: [email protected].

 

Footnotes:

1. All data were gathered using an automatic process that visits school websites every night and extracts information about any new vacancies it finds there This process does not capture all vacant positions because: (a) not all positions are advertised on school websites, (b) even when they are, they are not necessarily presented in a way that can be automatically indexed, and (c) websites are sometimes unresponsive or otherwise unavailable. The data presented should therefore be thought of as being based not on a comprehensive list of all vacancies but on a subset. However, positions have been detected for well over 90% of schools and these are broadly representative of the overall population of schools.

How frequently are schools being inspected?

7th June 2024 by Timo Hannay [link]

Update 7th June 2024: See also this coverage in Tes.

For Ofsted, as for many other organisations, the last few years have been a period of considerable disruption and change: the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21, which put a temporary halt to most inspections, the resumption at around the same time of regular inspections for previously 'Outstanding' schools, and the arrival of a new chief inspector in January 2024.

Last year we took a deep dive into the changing face of Ofsted inspections, including inspection numbers, types and grades. We even looked at how Ofsted's interest in different topics has evolved over the years by conducting a statistical analysis of word frequencies in their reports.

This post provides an update, looking in particular at the status of Ofsted's aim to clear its post-pandemic backlog and to revisit schools that have long been exempt from inspection. We will focus on mainstream state schools in England, looking separately at primary and secondary schools (with all-through schools categorised as secondary). It is based on Ofsted reports published up to the end of May 2024, and distinguishes between graded and ungraded inspections (officially referred to as Section 5 and Section 8 inspections, respectively).

In summary, we find that:

• Across primary schools, almost 45% have received a graded inspection since the pandemic and around 80% have done so within the last 10 years. But the proportions for 'Outstanding' schools are only around 33% and 75%, respectively.
• Taking into account ungraded inspections too, over 70% of primary schools have received an inspection of some kind since the pandemic and nearly 98% have done so within the last 10 years. Among those judged 'Outstanding' at their last inspection these proportions are much lower: 40% and just under 75%, respectively.
• Across secondary schools, around 55% have received a graded inspection since the pandemic and almost 90% have done so within the last 10 years. If we include ungraded inspections then nearly 80% of secondary schools have received some kind of inspection since the pandemic and nearly 98% have done so within the last 10 years. But here too the proportions are much lower for 'Outstanding' schools: under 60% and around 80%, respectively.
• In order for Ofsted to meet its target of reinspecting all schools by summer 2025, it will need to visit roughly 4,700 further schools between now and then. This includes around 4,100 primary schools and 65 secondary schools. Or to put another way, about 930 'Outstanding' schools, 1,670 'Good' schools, 20 schools designated as 'Requires Improvement' and 2,120 schools currently without an Ofsted grade. Given recent inspection rates, this seems like a stretch.

 

Primary data

Figure 1 shows counts of mainstream state primary schools in England, arranged by the number of months since their last graded Ofsted inspection (and therefore includes only schools that have received at least one graded inspection). Each individual column corresponds to a three-month period (ie, one quarter). Note that we can only count inspections that have been published, so there will be some very recent ones, especially within the last couple of months, that have taken place but do not yet appear in the data.

Across all primary schools recent activity has generally been in the range of 600 to 800 inspections each quarter (which is broadly consistent with Ofsted inspection rates since 2015). The gap corresponding to 36-48 months (ie, 3-4 years) ago is due to the inspection hiatus during the pandemic. Substantial numbers of schools have not received a full graded inspection since before the pandemic and quite a few were last fully inspected more than a decade ago. It is important to note that this does not necessarily mean Ofsted has been ignoring them: there may have been ungraded inspections in the meantime; we will consider those below.

There is also an interesting 'sawtooth' pattern in which schools inspected longer ago tend to be less numerous, but with an increase about 108 months (ie, nine years) ago. This corresponds to introduction of the new 'Common Inspection Framework in September 2015 (see our previous analysis). It appears that Ofsted is in effect prioritising schools based not only on the time since their last inspection, but also on the framework under which they were previously inspected.

Unsurprisingly, these patterns also vary by Ofsted grade. Schools judged 'Inadequate' or 'Requires Improvement' have overwhelmingly been inspected since the pandemic – and can presumably expect to receive further visits relatively soon. In contrast, 'Good' and (especially) 'Outstanding' schools include large numbers that have not received a graded inspection for many years.

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools and those graded 'Outstanding', 'Good', 'Requires Improvement' or 'Inadequate'. Hover over the columns to see corresponding date values.)

Figure 2 shows the same data, but expressed as a cumulative proportion of schools. Across all primary schools, almost 45% have received a graded inspection since the pandemic and around 80% have done so within the last 10 years. But among 'Outstanding' schools these proprtions are lower: around 33% and 75%, respectively. Conversely, as we have already seen above, all schools deemed 'Inadequate' and almost all of those designated as 'Requires Improvement' have received graded inspections within the last two or three years. 'Good' schools (which make up the majority) align quite closely to the distribution for all schools.

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools and those graded 'Outstanding', 'Good', 'Requires Improvement' or 'Inadequate'. Hover over the columns to see corresponding date values.)

Figure 3 shows the same analysis, but uses all inspections, whether graded or ungraded. Across all primary schools, over 70% have received an inspection of some kind since the pandemic and nearly 98% have done so within the last 10 years. However, among schools judged 'Outstanding' at their last inspection these proportions are only about 40% and just under 75%, respectively. Schools graded 'Good' at their last inspection have all be inspected within the last six or seven years, those designated 'Requires Improvement' within the last four or five years and schools deemed 'Inadequate' within the last two years. Those whose last inspection was ungraded show a broadly similar distribution to 'Good' schools.

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools and those whose last inspections graded them as 'Outstanding', 'Good', 'Requires Improvement' or 'Inadequate', or those whose last inspection was ungraded. Hover over the columns to see corresponding date values.)

 

Secondary considerations

Figure 4 shows the same analysis as Figure 1, but this time for mainstream state secondary schools. The overall pattern is broadly similar to primary schools, albeit with lower numbers (for the simple reason that in England there are about four primary schools for every secondary school). Consistent with this, the current rate of inspections is around 150 to 200 each quarter.

Once again we see that schools graded 'Inadequate' or 'Requires Improvement' have overwhelming been inspected within the last two or three years, while those considered 'Outstanding' included plenty that have not received a graded inspection for anything up to 12 years or more. Predictably, 'Good' schools are somewhere in between.

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools and those graded 'Outstanding', 'Good', 'Requires Improvement' or 'Inadequate'. Hover over the columns to see corresponding date values.)

Figure 5 shows the cumulative proportions. Across all secondary schools, around 55% have received a graded inspection since the pandemic and almost 90% have done so within the last 10 years. For 'Outstanding' schools, the corresponding proportions are just over 45% and 80%, respectively, and for 'Good' schools they are just under 50% and 90%. In contrast, almost all schools graded 'Inadequate' or 'Requires Improvement' schools have received a graded inspection within the last three or four years.

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools and those graded 'Outstanding', 'Good', 'Requires Improvement' or 'Inadequate'. Hover over the columns to see corresponding date values.)

Figure 6 shows the same analysis, but includes all inspections, whether graded or ungraded. Across all secondary schools, nearly 80% have received an inspection since the pandemic and nearly 98% have done so within the last 10 years. However, among 'Outstanding' schools these proportions are just under 60% and around 80%, respectively. 'Good' schools have almost all been inspected within the last six years, those graded 'Requires Improvement' within the last four years and schools designated 'Inadequate' within the last 18 months. As for primary schools, secondary schools whose last inspection was ungraded show a broadly similar distribution to 'Good' schools.

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools and those whose last inspections graded them as 'Outstanding', 'Good', 'Requires Improvement' or 'Inadequate', or those whose last inspection was ungraded. Hover over the columns to see corresponding date values.)

 

Making the grade?

It is clear from the analysis above that Ofsted makes quite heavy use of ungraded inspections to keep up with its commitments. If so, is it is making greater use of them than before in order to achieve its 2020 aim of reinspecting formerly exempt 'Outstanding' schools, and its 2021 aim of reinspecting all schools by summer 2025?

In a word, no. Figure 7 shows the proportions of graded inspections during each quarter from 2010 to 2024 for all schools (black line), primary schools (red) and secondary schools (blue). The mix has certainly changed over time. During the early 2010s it was generally well above 50%, with periodic downward spikes due to large numbers of ungraded 'Interim Assessments'. During the latter part of the 2010s the proportion of graded inspections declined to below 50%, but rose again in 2019 with the introduction of a new Education Inspection Framework. It fell to zero during the pandemic, when there were vanishingly few inspections anyway. Since then it has maintained broadly the same level as just before the pandemic of around 50-60%.

(Hover over the graph to see corresponding values. Click on the legend to turn indvidual lines on or off.)

Where does this leave us on the question of how many schools have not yet been inspected since before the pandemic – a backlog that Ofsted says it intends to clear by next year.

Figure 8 shows the answers for graded inspections. In terms of proportions of schools, across all grades (left-hand columns), 54% of all schools (grey) have not received a graded inspection since before the pandemic. This breaks down into 56% of primary schools (red) and 44% of secondary schools (blue). These proportions are much higher for schools previously rated as 'Outstanding' (64%) or 'Good' (58%) than for those designated 'Requires Improvement' (2%) or 'Inadequate' (0%). In terms of numbers, these correspond to a total of just over 9,000 schools, including roughly 7,700 primary schools and 1,300 secondary schools. The vast majority of them (7,700) are rated 'Good' but a considerable number (over 1,300) are 'Outstanding'.

(Use the menu below to switch between percentages and numbers of schools. Hover over the columns to see corresponding values. Click on the legend to turn school groups on or off.)

That would likely be far too many schools for Ofsted to try and inspect over the next 14 months. Fortunately ungraded inspections might come to the rescue. Data for these are shown in Figure 9.

Taking into account ungraded as well as graded inspections, and looking once again at percentages, 26% of all schools (grey) have not received any inspections since before the pandemic. This includes 27% of primary schools (red) and 20% of secondary schools (blue). Once again, these proportions are much higher for 'Outstanding' schools (56%) and 'Good' schools (23%) than for those rated 'Requires Improvement' (2%) or 'Inadequate' (0%). Among schools with no current rating (because they have never received a graded inspection), 26% have not been inspected since before the 2020-21 pandemic.

How does this translate into numbers of schools? We count just over 4,700 schools that have not received any kind of inspection since before the pandemic and therefore require an Ofsted visit in the next 14 months or so. (This does't allow for inspections that have already taken place but not yet been published, nor for the opening of new schools or the need to reinspect some schools that have already been visited since the pandemic. In practice, these simplifications might roughly cancel out.)

These are composed of almost 4,100 primary schools and around 650 secondary schools. Or to slice them another way, about 930 'Outstanding' schools, 1,670 'Good' schools, 20 schools with a 'Requires Improvement' status and 2,120 schools currently without an Ofsted grade. Getting through all of those between now and summer 2025 would require around 340 inspections a month. Current rates of inspection appear closer to 300 a month, so while this seems like a stretch, it doesn't appear impossible.

(Use the menu below to switch between percentages and numbers of schools. Hover over the columns to see corresponding values. Click on the legend to turn school groups on or off.)

 

Findings

Depending on your point of view, it's impressive that approaching half of schools have received graded inspections (and over 70% have received some kind of inspection) since the end of the pandemic, or worrying that around 15% still haven't received a graded inspection for more than a decade. Either way, Ofsted will be kept more than busy over the next year trying to get around to all the schools that haven't seen them since the old days before COVID.

Subscribers to SchoolDash Insights can follow these and other Ofsted trends in real time. Non-subscribers can request a trial account or demo. To keep up to date with more analyses like this one, sign up for our free monthly-ish newsletter and if you have questions or comments then we would be delighted to hear from you: [email protected].

Post-pandemic financial fortunes

6th June 2024 by Timo Hannay [link]

Update 7th June 2024: See this insightful blog post from the Teacher Development Trust.

Update 6th June 2024: See also this coverage in Tes.

Our 2022 analysis looked at school finances in the immediate wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. This post provides an update on the emerging trends we saw at that time, which weren't pretty. It turns out that much has changed in the meantime, some of it predictable, some of it much less so.

As before, this analysis uses financial data for mainstream state primary and secondary schools in England, issued by the Department for Education and collected in our premium dashboard, SchoolDash Insights.

In summary, we find that:

• Having peaked during the pandemic, in-year balances have since been in decline. The median primary school had a negative balance in 2023. In contrast, revenue reserves have improved in recent years, which may be a sign of reduced capital expenditure.
• The proportion of school expenditure devoted to staff costs peaked at 80% in 2021 and has since declined to 77%, a level last seen in 2019. During 2016-2023, per-pupil spend on teaching staff has broadly kept pace with inflation among primary schools, but declined by about 15% among secondary schools. Expenditure on supply teachers has risen rapidly since the pandemic.
• There have been corresponding increases in non-staff lines. In particular, energy and catering expenditure rose rapidly in 2023, and spend on non-ICT learning resources (such as textbooks) bounced back from mid-pandemic lows – but overall has not kept pace with inflation. Spend on ICT learning resources (such as computers, software and online services) has been flat or declining in nominal terms, and fell by around 40%-50% in real terms between 2016 and 2023.
• These trends do not affect all parts of the country equally. For example, energy expenditure is around 20% higher in London and the North East than in the South East and South West. Conversely, revenue from school facilities, contributions and donations are around 50%-60% higher in London than in the East Midlands.
• Spending on staff development has bounced back from its mid-pandemic trough, but longer-term declines have not been reversed and remain 30%-50% below 2016 levels in real terms. Schools with higher proportions of disadvantaged pupils have tended to spend more on staff development, but have also seen the biggest falls since before the pandemic.

 

Cheques and balances

Figure 1 shows in-year balances per pupil for the median school between 2016 and 2023. Positive values correspond to underspends, negative values to overspends. We use median values rather than mean values in order to prevent outlier schools from having undue effects, though in practice both approaches give broadly similar results. The black line shows values for all schools, the red one for primary schools and the blue one for secondary schools. Because primary schools are so much more numerous than secondary schools, the median values for all schools are much closer to the former group than to the latter.

Having dipped at the start of the pandemic in 2020, particularly among primary schools, in-year balances peaked during the latter stages of the pandemic in 2021, particularly among secondary schools. This may have been due to a combination of COVID-related funding and reduced costs due to restrictions on a wide variety of activities, from extracurricular events to site maintenance work. They have since been in decline, and in 2023 the median primary school had a negative revenue balance.

(Hover over points on the graph to see corresponding values.)

Figure 2 shows a similar analysis for revenue reserve per pupil. Interestingly, this has been climbing, especially for secondary schools in 2023. Naively, one might assume that increases or decreases in reserves would track with in-year balances (shown above in Figure 1), increasing when schools are in surplus and falling they are in deficit. This is clearly not the case, perhaps because of variations in capital spend. The recent increase in median reserves, while a good thing in itself, could also be a signal that schools are reducing capital spend in the wake of the pandemic and in the face of future financial uncertainty. We welcome any feedback from the front line as to whether this is in fact the case – see the email address at the end of this post.

(Hover over points on the graph to see corresponding values.)

 

Percentage terms

One of the most arresting findings in our previous analysis of school finances was the way in which steadily increasing spend on staff appeared to be crowding out other expenditure lines. Figure 3 shows how this has changed since 2021. The overall proportion of school budgets spent on staff has declined from 80% in 2021 to 77% in 2023, which is about the same as in 2019. This reverses a long-standing trend. The recent decline has, if anything, been a bit steeper for secondary schools than for primary schools. (Show all schools again.)

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools, primary schools and secondary schools. Click on the figure legend to turn individual expenditure lines on or off; double-click to show one on its own. Hover over the graph to see corresponding values.)

Figure 4 shows the same information for non-staff expenditure lines. Since staff lines have declined as a proportion of total spend (see above), these other lines have necessarily risen in aggregate, but there is considerable variation between them. Energy spend spiked in 2023, especially for primary schools. Across all schools, expenditure on non-ICT learning resources (such as textbooks) and catering supplies bounced back from mid-pandemic lows, though for secondary schools catering costs overshot and are now at historic highs. Other lines were flat or declining. Especially in primary schools, the ongoing low levels of expenditure on ICT learning resources (such as computers, software and online services) and staff development are particularly notable. (Show all schools and all lines again.)

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools, primary schools and secondary schools. Click on the figure legend to turn individual expenditure lines on or off; double-click to show one on its own. Hover over the graph to see corresponding values.)

 

Cash amounts

Figure 5 shows the same staff spending lines we saw above in Figure 3, but expressed in cash terms (£s per pupil) rather than percentage terms. Most staff lines have steadily risen in nominal terms (ie, before allowing for inflation). For example, per-pupil spend on teaching staff (red line) rose from £2,070 in primary schools and £2,839 in secondary schools in 2016 to £2,724 and £3,313, respectively, in 2023. These correspond to increases of about 32% for primary schools and 17% for secondary schools. During the same period, cumulative UK consumer prices (based on the Consumer Price Index) rose by just over 30%, so primary schools have broadly kept pace with inflation while secondary school spend has fallen in real terms. Across all schools, the exceptions to this overall trend were spending on supply teachers, which has risen sharply since the pandemic, and spending on other staff, which has remained flat. (Show all lines again.)

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools, primary schools and secondary schools. Click on the figure legend to turn individual expenditure lines on or off; double-click to show one on its own. Hover over the graph to see corresponding values.)

Figure 6 shows the same information for non-staff lines. In per-pupil cash terms across all schools, energy spend rose dramatically between 2021 and 2023, roughly doubling. There was a similar, albeit slightly less extreme, trend for catering supplies, especially among secondary schools. Spend on non-ICT learning resources has also risen since the pandemic: from 2016 to 2023 it fell in real terms (ie, after taking into account inflation) among primary schools, but just about kept pace with inflation among secondary schools. Most other lines were flat or declining. In particular, across all schools, ICT learning resource spend fell about 10% in nominal terms (down roughly 40% in real terms) between 2016 and 2023. Over the same period, staff development spend fell by about 20% in nominal terms (almost 50% in real terms). (Show all schools and all lines again.)

(Use the menu below to switch between all schools, primary schools and secondary schools. Click on the figure legend to turn individual expenditure lines on or off; double-click to show one on its own. Hover over the graph to see corresponding values.)

 

Re location

These trends do not affect all parts of the country equally. Figure 7 shows average energy expenditure per pupil, with paler colours indicating lower values. Some regions spend about 20-25% more than others, with northern areas generally spending more than southern ones (probably at least in part because winters tend to be colder and darker the further north you go). This pattern is clearer for primary schools than for secondary schools. The main exception to this overall geographical trend is London, where spend among both primary and secondary schools is almost as high as in the North East. The reasons for this are not clear, but might be linked to the age and quality of London's building stock (spend on school-building maintenance also tends to be high there).

(Use the menu below to switch between primary schools and secondary schools. Hover over the map to see corresponding values and sample sizes.)

Conversely, there are also regional differences in the ability of schools to raise their own income. Figure 8 shows the average amount of income per pupil generated through school facilties (eg, lettings), contributions (eg, for trips) and donations (eg, from parents or trust/diocese funds). Among primary schools, these differences are up to 50% and among secondary schools they can be almost 60%. In both cases they represent small proportions of total school income, but at the margins they can make a difference in the ability of schools to spend on things like learning resources and building maintenance. And when higher expenditure on costs such as energy are combined with lower ability to raise money, these effects are magnified.

(Use the menu below to switch between primary schools and secondary schools. Hover over the map to see corresponding values and sample sizes.)

 

Research on development

Finally, we will take a brief dive into the subject of staff development spend, long an interest of ours: see previous coverage here, here and here. Figure 9 shows average per-teacher spending on staff development for all schools (black line), primary schools (red) and secondary schools (blue). This has been declining even in nominal terms (ie, before allowing for inflation) and took a nosedive during the pandemic. It has since bounced back slightly and stabilised, though it is still 25% down in nominal terms across primary schools (around 50% down in real terms) since 2016 and has been flat across secondary schools (around 30% down in real terms) over the same period.

(Hover over the graph to see corresponding values.)

Figure 10 shows how per-teacher spend on staff development has varied across different school types, and also how it changed from before the pandemic (2019; red columns) to after it (2023; blue). Primary and secondary schools are grouped together for this analysis.

Schools with higher proportions of disadvantaged pupils, and those located in poorer areas, have tended to spend more on staff development, but have also seen the biggest falls over the period of the pandemic. Ofsted 'Outstanding' schools used to spend more on staff development before the pandemic, but this is no longer the case. Sponsor-led academies and (especially) free schools have tended to spend more on staff development, but the amount they spend and the size of the gap with other schools have both fallen greatly since the pandemic.

(Use the menu below to switch between these and other school types. Hover over the graph to see corresponding values and sample sizes.)

Figure 11 shows how staff development spend per teacher also varies across the country. In the North West it has been relatively high for primary schools but low for secondary schools; the South West shows roughly the opposite trend. Meanwhile, London and the East of England have shown relatively high levels of spend across both primary and secondary phases.

(Use the menu below to switch between primary schools and secondary schools. Hover over the map to see corresponding values and sample sizes.)

 

Summing up

So there you have it. Revenue balances are down, but reserves are up. The proportions of school budgets devoted to staff have fallen a bit, but those spent on energy and catering have risen a lot. Other lines such as expenditure on learning resources and staff development have not kept pace with inflation. And these various financial stresses have fallen unevenly on different parts of the country. If 'levelling up' is a thing, it has yet to demonstrate its presence in the finances of England's schools.

Subscribers to SchoolDash Insights can follow these and other related trends in the Finances section. Non-subscribers can request a trial account or demo. To keep up to date with more analyses like this one, sign up for our free monthly-ish newsletter. and if you have questions or comments then we would be delighted to hear form you: [email protected].